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Application of Space-Time Kriging for Monthly Precipitation Values of Lake Van Basin in Turkey

TitleApplication of Space-Time Kriging for Monthly Precipitation Values of Lake Van Basin in Turkey
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsAslanta┼č P
Conference NameDailyMeteo.org/2014
Date Published06/2014
PublisherFaculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade
Conference LocationBelgrade
Abstract

Precipitation is an important climatic variable that varies both in space and time. Like other climatic, meteorological, hydrologic and environmental variables, precipitation is measured from specific locations. Predictions at the locations that have no measurement values are obtained with interpolation techniques. Space-time interpolation techniques which use variables that vary both in space and time have received increasing attention. In this study space-time kriging is performed by combining spatial and temporal information of precipitation. The aim of the study is to apply space-time Universal kriging (ST-UK) method to monthly precipitation values measured from meteorological stations at the Lake Van Basin and predict precipitation at each spatial and temporal location. Lake Van is the largest lake of Turkey and located at the far-east part of the country. Lake Van is one of the largest closed drainage basins of the world. The Lake Van basin includes the lake and neighboring districts. The area of Lake Van Basin is used as study area in the study. The area of the basin is about 16.000 km2 and area of lake is about 3800 km2. Space-time information of precipitation is obtained from ten meteorological stations located over the basin and measurements are recorded for 1981-2010 years. Elevation is used as secondary information that was obtained by resampling the 3 arc second SRTM (the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) (approximately 90 m spatial resolution) to 1 km spatial resolution using the Nearest Neighbor algorithm. Monthly precipitation values are analyzed and predicted over 1*1 km spatial resolution grid. One-fold cross-validation is used to assess accuracy performance of space-time kriging technique. In this way, R-square and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) are calculated and evaluated for each prediction maps.

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